Turnout

The last two elections produced well below average turnouts (59% in 2001 and 65% in 2005). There is concern that the next election will be lower. Disgust at the behaviour of many politicians in the Commons and Lords has left disenchanted electors very disgruntled.

A poll reported on Radio 4 today gave a more optimistic prediction for a higher turnout citing 1992 as an example. The theory goes that when there is uncertainty as to which party will win the election, more people vote. John Major’s Tory win had a higher number of Tory voters than Mrs Thatcher ever achieved. The past two elections were not seen as contests hence the low turnout.

The contrary view is that disgust will keep a significant number at home. Also the proportion of young voters actually voting at the last election was the lowest ever. There is evidence to suggest that when people vote young, they tend to vote all their lives. When they do not vote young, they then rarely vote and some never vote. This could mean the turnout will be even less.

There are several weeks to go yet the campaign has clearly begun in everything but name. Voter fatigue could be an issue. Chuck in vitriolic campaigning and dirty tricks and the outcome could be even more alienation.

Why does this matter? New Labour won the last election with just over 21% of the electorate’s backing. Hitler attained power in 1933 with 33% of the vote.